Behind the Barracks: Why Change is Coming to Pakistan's Military

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This is a story from Wajahat Saeed Khan’s sharp insights about Pakistan's military, its current challenges, and why change—though resisted—is now unavoidable.

1. The Army's Dilemma: Power vs. Popularity

Pakistan’s army is often portrayed as invincible, with a thick skin that deflects criticism. But here’s the truth: the institution thrives on popularity as much as power. In recent years, this popularity has declined due to political entanglements, economic struggles, and internal strife. And who’s the central disruptor? None other than Imran Khan.

While external threats exist—terrorism, a simmering insurgency in Balochistan, and tensions with India—the internal divide, fueled by Khan’s narrative, has destabilized the military's grip. The rank-and-file soldiers, many of whom resonate with Khan's populist message, pose a silent yet significant challenge to the army leadership.

2. Why Change is Inevitable

History offers a lesson. Every powerful military leader—Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, Pervez Musharraf—was eventually forced to adapt or exit. Even dictators couldn’t escape the underlying democratic spirit of Pakistan’s people. Today, General Asim Munir faces a similar predicament.

The military's habit of “course correction” is real. Soldiers' voices travel up the chain of command, whether it's about broken barracks or growing dissatisfaction with leadership. The ground reality can no longer be ignored.

3. Extensions and Erosion of Authority

The specter of military extensions looms large. Historically, extensions have weakened army chiefs rather than empowering them. Munir, despite wielding immense institutional power as a former ISI and MI chief, faces mounting internal pressure. If history repeats itself, his overextended tenure might create more cracks than cohesion within the army's command structure.

4. Politics: The Double-Edged Sword

The army’s involvement in politics is no secret. Today, it operates more like a political party than a defense institution. Yet, political maneuvers are yielding diminishing returns. Pakistan’s economic crisis, rising insurgency, and Imran Khan’s unrelenting popularity have left the army stretched thin.

On one hand, the military leans on the PML-N government for legal cover (e.g., military trials, censorship laws). On the other, it realizes that PML-N can’t guarantee long-term stability. This transactional relationship is fragile and unsustainable.

5. The Path Forward: A Transactional Peace

Here’s the crux: the army needs Imran Khan, and Khan needs the army. But this relationship won’t mend itself without compromise. Khan’s party, PTI, must offer something concrete:

  • Governance: Deliver stability in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
  • Stability: Ease political tensions and avoid mass protests.
  • Respect: Tone down hostile rhetoric against military leadership.

Without these steps, the cycle of retaliation and resistance will continue, and Pakistan will remain stuck in a political deadlock.

6. A Fragile Stability

The military isn't sentimental. It’s transactional. If the PTI can align its strategy with the army's needs—governance, stability, and respect—there’s a path forward. Otherwise, the military might shift its bets towards the PPP in the next cycle.

Wajahat Saeed Khan concludes with a reminder: Pakistan’s army isn’t just a defense force; it’s a political animal with survival instincts. And when cornered, it knows how to pivot. But this time, the stakes are higher, and the margin for error is razor-thin.

In short, the army’s survival hinges on its ability to adapt, and Imran Khan remains a central figure in this unfolding saga. Both sides must make concessions, or Pakistan risks deeper instability.

This is the mirror Wajahat holds up to us. It’s not just about the army or politics—it’s about the collective resilience of a nation caught between power struggles and the hope for a better future.

 

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