Tesla Wins the Self-Driving Race: How VISION Crushed LiDAR

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 1. The Beginning: A Bold Vision

When Elon Musk dismissed LiDAR as "a fool’s errand" back in 2019, many critics laughed it off. They said it was reckless and impossible. How could cars rely solely on vision? Fast forward to today, and Tesla has proven him right. This story isn’t just about technology; it’s about persistence, innovation, and, ultimately, domination. I’m here to share the journey of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and how it turned the autonomous vehicle industry on its head.

From the start, Tesla took a radically different approach. While competitors like Waymo and General Motors (GM) invested in expensive LiDAR systems and complex maps, Tesla focused on cameras, vision-based AI, and data collection. Critics said it couldn’t be done. Yet, here we are: Waymo is scaling back, GM is shifting strategy, and even Google’s CEO acknowledges that Tesla leads the race.

2. The Turning Point: Admitting Defeat

For years, companies argued that LiDAR was essential for self-driving cars. But it became clear that this technology was a crutch—expensive, complicated, and unsustainable for mass production. Tesla’s vision-based neural networks, on the other hand, were improving at an exponential rate.

GM recently admitted they are abandoning their heavy reliance on LiDAR and pivoting toward Tesla’s vision-first approach. Waymo, often praised as Tesla’s competitor, now struggles with scaling up. Their fleet of 300 robotaxis pales in comparison to Tesla’s millions of vehicles collecting data daily.

Even Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai admitted publicly that Tesla is leading the space. When the person funding Waymo says Tesla is the frontrunner, it’s a clear sign of where things are headed.

3. Why Tesla's Approach Works: Data Is King

Here’s the magic of Tesla’s success: data and scale. With over 7 million Tesla vehicles on the road, the company collects 15 million miles of Full Self-Driving data every single day. Compare that to Waymo’s 150,000 daily miles, and the gap is staggering.

Let me put it into perspective:

  • The average human drives 1.3 million miles in a lifetime.

  • Tesla’s fleet collects that much data in just two hours.

Tesla’s neural network doesn’t just drive; it learns. Every time a Tesla car is driven, it gathers experience, improving the system faster than any competitor can dream of. This level of real-world data collection is unmatched, and no company—not Waymo, not GM—has the resources or fleet to replicate it.

4. From Baby to Adult Driver: Tesla’s Neural Network

Remember when FSD felt like a clumsy toddler? Two years ago, Tesla started from scratch with its neural network-based version 12. Today, version 13 drives as well as (or better than) most human drivers. It can navigate snowy roads, dirt paths, and even complex city streets without intervention.

Here’s the kicker: Tesla’s AI wasn’t coded to recognize stop signs, traffic lights, or obstacles. It learned by observing humans.

Imagine this: Beta testers tried to confuse Tesla’s system by parking cars in bizarre situations—dead ends, snow-covered rooftops, and narrow streets requiring nine-point turns. Each time, the system figured it out. Tesla’s cars are no longer babies; they’re skilled drivers who improve daily.

5. The Unscalable Business of LiDAR

Lidar is Doomed: Elon Musk, 2021
Why did LiDAR fail? Beyond its cost and complexity, the supply chain just isn’t there. In 2023, only 460,000 LiDAR systems were produced worldwide. At four sensors per Waymo vehicle, that’s enough for a mere 115,000 robotaxis—a tiny number compared to Tesla’s scalable fleet.

Tesla’s CyberCab (a designated robotaxi) is projected to cost just $15,000 per vehicle—a fraction of Waymo’s $100,000-per-car expense. Add Tesla’s ready-made supply chain, revenue streams, and supercomputers, and it becomes clear: no one can compete.

Competitors would have to start from scratch. Even GM, with its recent admission, doesn’t have the fleet, data, or compute power to keep up. Waymo and others might claim to scale, but they’ll hit the wall of economic reality.

6. The Endgame: Tesla Takes It All

So where does this leave us? The race for autonomy isn’t just about cars driving themselves. It’s about who owns the data, compute power, and scalable infrastructure. Tesla’s strategy has left competitors stranded on the roadside.

Just like Tesla’s charging standard became the industry norm, its Full Self-Driving software will become the autonomous standard. Companies like GM and Waymo will have no choice but to license Tesla’s software or risk extinction. Tesla’s vehicles are not just cars; they are data collectors, contributing to a system that improves at an unprecedented speed.

Elon Musk was right all along. Tesla isn’t just a car company—it’s an AI powerhouse, a leader in real-world AI, and the undisputed champion of autonomy.

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